Designated as the ‘Very Intense’, Tropical Cyclone Freddy is projected to hit the eastern coast of Madagascar – likely between Mahanoro and Manakara – today (February 21). It is expected to bring devastating winds and very dangerous sea conditions.
Freddy passed north of Mauritius and Réunion yesterday, causing several flight cancellations, particularly to/from the island of Rodrigues. Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport on Mauritius reopened today following a 24-hour closure due to the cyclone.
The cyclone is described by weather services as “powerful and compact, generating extreme winds near its centre but having a limited zone of influence, with few effects felt beyond 200km from the centre”.
An Airlink spokesperson has told Tourism Update that the airline has not cancelled any flights between Johannesburg and Antananarivo at this stage.
The Madagascan regions of Atsinanana, Vatovavy and Fitovinany are under a yellow (threat) alert, while Analanjirofo, Atsimo Atsinanana, Alaotra, Analamanga, Itasy, Vakinankaratra, Amoron’i mania, Matsiatra Ambony, Ihorombe, Menabe, Beroroha, Ankazoabo, Sakaraha, Morombe and Toliara regions are under a green (warning) alert, according to Meteo Madagascar.
Areas near the projected landfall of Cyclone Freddy are still struggling to recover from the impacts of cyclones Batsirai and Emnati in 2022, which made landfall in nearby Mananjary city on February 5 and in Manakara town on February 23 last year and destroyed homes, infrastructure and crops, with 874 000 people still facing severe food problems.
This will be the first cyclone, and the second tropical weather system, to hit Madagascar in the 2022-2023 southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season. Tropical Storm Cheneso made landfall on January 19 this year, and affected 90 870 people, including 33 who died in 18 regions, according to Madagascar’s National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management.
Mozambique next?
After crossing Madagascar, it is projected that Cyclone Freddy could emerge in the Mozambican Channel and strengthen again before making landfall in Mozambique and potentially moving on to affect Zimbabwe after decreasing in strength.
Over 3.3 million people could be impacted – 2.3m in Madagascar; 527 000 in Mozambique; and 531 000 in Zimbabwe – by wind speeds of 120kph during the cyclone’s passage across the three countries, according to the World Food Programme’s Automated Disaster Analysis and Mapping system.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) said, in the event that Freddy did move inland, the system’s weakened, dissipating remnants would still have the capacity to deliver significantly heavy rainfall as well as the possibility of extensive flooding on the east coast.
“In the light of the recent (unrelated) flooding event which affected Limpopo and Mpumalanga last week, any renewed flooding over last-mentioned regions could potentially be catastrophic,” a press release read.
SAWS also issued a warning that strong winds and waves were expected along the south and east coasts of the country between Plettenberg Bay and Richards Bay today. The national weather service continues to monitor the situation.
