In the best-case scenario, Africa is predicted to take at least four years to recover to pre-crisis levels of travel demand and spending.

This was highlighted by Caroline Bremner, Head of Travel for global market research company Euromonitor, in her keynote address for the opening of WTM London Virtual today (November 9).

She presented Euromonitor’s November report, ‘Accelerating Travel Innovation After Coronavirus’ which highlighted that, with world arrivals forecast to be down 50% by the end of 2020, the global travel supply chain was under immense pressure and, faced with the reality of a global recession and new waves of the virus, countries were using innovation to accelerate recovery.

With the acceleration in digital identity creation and the roll-out of 5G connectivity and technology, there is potential to create smart connected cities in countries such as South Africa and Nigeria, highlighted Bremner.

She cautioned that the impact of COVID-19 on travel and the economy in general was still “highly unpredictable” and, therefore, difficult to project growth and recovery. The “best-case scenario” baseline projections were premised on the availability of a vaccine within the first half of 2021.

“A lot, of course, depends on how the global pandemic plays out,” said Bremner, noting that the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy was at least 10 times worse than that of the global financial crisis a decade ago.

African innovation

In Africa, Business and MICE travel are set to pick up faster, with a lag for leisure, whilst the outlook for domestic tourism looks fragile, taking several years to return.

“Lodging, intermediaries and transport players are also expected to face a long haul, taking five to seven years to return to previous sales levels after mass closures and cancellations,” she said.

The brightest outlook, she said, was expected for online travel categories, taking four years to make up for lost ground and mobile sales within three years. “Short-term rental players like Airbnb are set to benefit from the shift to domestic through public partnership.”

Areas such as attractions and experiences and shopping on the continent will play a big role,

Bremner said two major innovations would drive growth in Africa. The first is recognising that 72% of workers will not return to an office, and hotels will offer dedicated work spaces with seamless Internet connectivity and quiet work environments.

Secondly, new models for conservation are being rolled out, with emphasis on immersive nature experiences for visitors.

“Sustainable tourism will play a big part in the recovery process, with countries looking to achieve nett positive impact for local communities and wildlife,” said Bremner.