South Africa is shooting itself in the foot by keeping tourism closed as there is no public health reason to do so, according to Professor Alex van den Heever, Chair in the field of Social Security Systems Administration and Management Studies at the Wits School of Governance.

“There is no reason why tourism poses a greater risk than any other sector by being open,” he said, reiterating that, on the back of the dismal GDP second quarter results  which paint a stark picture of the state of the economy, South Africa can ill afford to cripple an industry that is widely touted as having the greatest potential to reignite the beleaguered economy.

“Yet, despite medical experts saying the industry is low risk enough for borders to reopen, South Africa remains firmly shut for the foreseeable future with a stringent visa regime and quarantine requirement under the National Disaster Act that would severely constrain demand for inbound international tourism, even if borders were to reopen tomorrow,” said Van den Heever.

He added that it was worth noting that the tourism sector was far better able to manage the risk of the pandemic now than it was in March.  

Besides being able to reopen safely, South Africa must, as far as possible, avoid the requirement of a quarantine period, said Van den Heever. “It is imperative that safe alternatives to quarantine approaches also be considered. Careful consideration needs to be given to developing such an approach as it will remove a considerable barrier to international travel. Workable options can be developed in conjunction with infectious disease specialists and institutionalised into health protocols.”

A recent Tourism Update article quoted Head of Travel for the Hong Kong-based Charlotte Travel, Ewan Burger, who said quarantines had been a major barrier to the return of inbound travel to East Africa after it opened its international borders.

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has also been vocal in its opposition to quarantines, with Gloria Guevara, WTTC President and CEO, advocating the implementation of a rapid test-and-trace strategy, with strong collaboration between governments, to ensure a standardised global approach to the crisis, which is critical to contain the virus and enable people to travel safely. 

According to Van den Heever, South Africa already has community infections and therefore needs to manage the risk to the general community and travellers in an environment in which the disease is already present.

This is unlike the situation in countries such as New Zealand and South Korea, which have focused their strategies on disease elimination. For South Africa and Europe this horse had long bolted, he explained.

“In the South African context, if an infected person comes to our country, it would be much the same as if someone from Benoni travelled to Johannesburg. Almost every area in South Africa was seeded, so we will only see a bubbling up of the virus if we back off from being careful and expose communities to super-spreading events. So we need to be cautious and adhere to health protocols until there is a safe and effective vaccine,” Van den Heever emphasised.

‘Mitigate, don’t shut down’

“The questions we should be asking are, how we should manage the risk of living with the virus, and how can we best mitigate the consequences of people being positive in different contexts. We can’t just shut everything down. The main issue is preventing super spreading by being careful and attentive to any instances where protocols need to be updated or where protocol adherence is a problem.”

With the prospect of a vaccine being many months away and recognition from the medical fraternity that our strategy needs remain focused on prevention and the management of risk, health and hygiene protocols become more than the currency of trust amongst travellers. “They become the key to reopening South Africa’s borders safely,” he pointed out.

He believes if good protocols are adhered to, South Africa should be able to manage the risks posed by COVID-positive travellers as well as those situations where travellers can be infected within South Africa’s borders.

“Much of South Africa is already in this position – with open businesses subject to health protocols. It is therefore unclear what additional risks are posed by international travel that are not already present and managed locally,” said Van den Heever.

South Africa’s tourism sector has adopted stringent protocols through the Tourism Business Council of South Africa’s Travel Safe – Eat Safe programme, which has been informed by all international and local health and safety guidelines, including the World Health Organization, the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, and the Department of Health, reviewed by an epidemiologist and endorsed by the WTTC.

Says TBCSA CEO, Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa: “We are confident South Africa’s tourism economy can be opened up safely if we follow global best practice and the comprehensive protocols we have developed. Travelling is as safe as going to the supermarket and many other things we do every day.”

‘Caution is needed’

However, while South African Tourism CEO, Sisa Ntshona, agreed that the survival of many businesses in the local inbound industry depended on the ability to resume operations as soon as it is safe to do so, he cautioned that the country’s reopening would be driven both by the country’s readiness to receive visitors and by prevailing travel policy in key source markets.

“While the number of new daily infections is currently far below peak, the rate of infection remains too high for South Africa to yet be placed on the ‘safe travel’ lists,” he said.

While local operators might be geared to receive international visitors, it might be premature to consider reopening borders to international travel as demand was supressed and ‘re-importation’ risk remained acute while South Africa’s own recovery was in its infancy, said Ntshona.

“The situation is changing rapidly however, and the trajectory and associated risk rating methodologies inform an approach to target setting. The industry’s booking lead times are material and, if a traveller is to visit the country over the festive period (for example), certainty over their ability to do so is now required. Without this certainty, travellers will choose another destination where such certainty exists.”

Using the expected trajectory through red, amber and green risk ratings as a guideline and, considering rebound risk, it could be expected that South Africa would once again be perceived as ‘safe’ within the foreseeable future, said Ntshona.